Monaco GP: Charles to reign in the Riviera

Aaron Harper
May 26, 2022
3 min read

Updated: May 28, 2022

F1 returns to the famed streets of Monaco, where Ayrton Senna won a record six times.

ree — A spectacular scene, the marina of Monte Carlo

Of the current crop, Lewis Hamilton (who else?) is the most winning driver around the Principality, with wins in 2008, 2016 and 2019.

All three of his wins have come in dramatic fashion, his ’08 and ’16 triumphs both coming through adverse weather, indeed he even hit the wall at Tabac corner in 2008.

ree — Hamilton celebrates his 2016 win in Monaco

Hamilton's 2019 victory, in the dry, came just days after the passing of Niki Lauda and also with a strategy that left Hamilton fending off Max Verstappen, who was all over the back of the Mercedes, trying to get by and make up for a five second time penalty.

Hamilton will fancy his chances in Monte Carlo but it might take a roll of the dice to get him to the front, as Ferrari and Red Bull still hold the aces when it comes to pure car performance.

Red Bull, who lead both championships after a one-two in Barcelona last weekend, won on the streets in 2021 with Verstappen, although Charles Leclerc may well have won instead had Ferrari checked both sides of his Ferrari, following the Monegasque’s Q3 crash.

Leclerc, who has not finished a race on home soil in F1, retired from a comfortable lead in Catalunya, handing Verstappen the championship initiative.

Ferrari were fastest of anyone in sector three in Spain, which is generally thought of as a good guide to who will be competitive in Monaco.

While there was hardly anything to separate Ferrari and Red Bull in that area of the track, Monaco has different demands to the Circuit de Barcelona-Catalunya, so the picture may yet change.

Mercedes were much improved in Spain but were behind Alfa Romeo and Haas in the fastest times in the final sector at the previous round.

We could see a surprise in Monte Carlo, where it is so difficult to pass another car, meaning qualifying and track position is absolutely vital.

With potential rain forecast on Sunday, he who holds his nerve might just hit the jackpot.

Pole Winner – Charles Leclerc

Leclerc has been fantastic in qualifying this year, his lap in Spain, when the pressure was really on, was sublime.

ree — Leclerc has been the man to beat in qualifying this season. He has four pole positions so far.

Martin Brundle called it a “lap of a champion” and Leclerc is ready to be champion, or at least fight for it.

He needs to bounce back and the Ferrari is probably just going to have an edge on the Red Bull in Monaco.

Race Winner – Charles Leclerc (Dry)/Lewis Hamilton (Wet)

In the dry, it will be very difficult to defeat the pole man, given that the current F1 cars are two metres wide.

Therefore, it makes sense to say that Leclerc will win, if he takes pole position.

But what if it rains?

Verstappen will be a threat in the wet, but I think the Red Bull will be short of a little something this weekend and that Mercedes will have a good foundation, possibly being the second fastest car.

When it comes to wet weather mastery, Lewis Hamilton is your man.